When Do Conspiracy Theorists Make Sense?

Cory Doctorow's column in the May issue of LOCUS discusses what we'd probably think of as paranoid conspiracy theorists, vehemently protesting imaginary global plots against our lives and liberties, who in Britain are often informally labeled "swivel-eyed loons."

The Swivel-Eyed Loons Have a Point

Of course, we do have to distinguish the paranoid looniness from valid concerns. As he says, we all want to "save the children." Most of us, however, want to save them from "real threats who never seem to face justice," while the swivel-eyed loons obsess about "imaginary threats," e.g., "adrenochrome-guzzling Satanists."

Some issues about which he suggests they have valid points:

Automated license-plate recorders, presently used in London, really can constitute "a form of pervasive location-tracking surveillance." That kind of power has been used in the past to target "disfavored minorities" and organizations regarded as suspicious.

While “'Climate lockdowns' are a product of a conspiracist’s fevered imagination," it's nevertheless true that COVID restrictions have sometimes served as a pretext "to control everyday people while rich people swanned around having a lovely time." The powerful were happy to promulgate regulations they didn't consider to apply to themselves.

The "post-ownership society" fearfully anticipated by some conspiracists has already begun to infiltrate the economy. Our Kindle books, music files, and other software don't really belong to us; we lease them from companies that can delete them at will.

What about the futuristic promise of a cashless society, when institutions such as credit card companies will be nearly all-powerful gatekeepers? "Access to financial services is a primary means of extralegal control over whole sectors of the economy."

Doctorow's article offers several other alarming examples.

However, he exaggerates about the demise of DVDs. Yes, we can still buy movies and TV programs (and music) in physical media that we permanently own; they aren't likely to disappear anytime soon. (The choice of renting DVDs from Netflix will go away later this year, though. Sigh.)

"We live in a fraught and perilous time," he reminds us, "and powerful people really do want to capitalize on this situation to enrich themselves at our expense." How can we enjoy the benefits of technologies such as those mentioned in his essay while avoiding their threats to our privacy and autonomy?

Margaret L. Carter

Carter's Crypt

Current Events: To Write or Not to Write?

The website of WRITER'S DIGEST has an article about whether authors should include references to the COVID-19 pandemic in contemporary fiction:

Should We Write About the Pandemic in Fiction?

The author of the article explores whether it's "too soon" to write about the pandemic or whether readers (and writers) who are worn out after the past three years prefer not to have that weight added to their fictional experiences. "Who would want to read about the pandemic, we wondered, on top of living it? Could we even bear to write about it? Didn’t we all need one long vacation from the subject?" On the other side, she personally felt a need to process the ordeal through stories. "Books make difficulties a shared experience. When we read about something we’ve also lived through, we realize that, thankfully, the story is not just our own." Moreover, in her opinion a present-day novel that didn't mention the pandemic would feel unrealistic; the omission of that element would jarringly stand out.

Most important, for her, failing to mention COVID-19 in a novel with a contemporary setting would violate her duty as an author to write the truth. Leaving it out would falsify present-day reality as we know it.

She makes some good points. On the other hand, one of my publishers decided not to allow references to the pandemic in contemporary fiction, and I believe there are good reasons for their position. First, we hope and trust the pandemic won't last forever. Like the flu pandemic of the early 20th century, it will pass. The disease may (probably will) hang around in some form, but it won't continue to dominate our lives and consciousness. Therefore, including COVID-19 in a story or novel would date the work to a specific period of three or four years. Unless there's a solid plot or character reason to write the piece within that framework, why handicap it that way?

Also, more fundamentally, the pandemic, if mentioned, would overshadow the rest of the story. Any fictional work that includes COVID-19 would have to be in some way ABOUT the pandemic. In that sense, I believe it is "too soon" in the same sense that it's still too soon to mention the September 11 attacks as mere background detail. A novel or story including that event would have to be "about" 9-11, such as Stephen King's novella whose protagonist had escaped dying with his coworkers because he happened not to be at the office that day. I think we can, however, legitimately incorporate such related details as going through an airport security checkpoint, something that's now woven into the fabric of our culture. Likewise, at some point in the future after COVID-19 recedes into the background as an annual nuisance like the flu, if people continue to wear masks in medical settings (for instance) that kind of thing could be casually mentioned in contemporary fiction.

What do you think about referencing contemporary real-life events in fiction set in the present day?

Margaret L. Carter

Carter's Crypt

Goals

As I've mentioned before, I haven't done New Year's "resolutions" in a long time. Thinking of the coming year in those terms feels discouraging, a potential set-up for failure. What I like to think of are "goals," and preferably modest enough to be fairly sure of accomplishing. Positive reinforcement for one's efforts is always a good thing. So here are a few goals I have for the near future:

Transcribe and release this year's vampire fiction bibliography update by the last week of January at the latest. Write a story in collaboration with my husband to submit to the forthcoming Darkover anthology well before the end-of-summer deadline. Write a brief essay the editor of a vampire journal asked me to compose for the magazine's "Notes" section. Discuss with one of my publishers the possible re-release of my erotic paranormal romances "orphaned" by the demise of Ellora's Cave that I haven't already self-published. I'm also awaiting reprint of a few more "orphaned" non-erotic romances contracted with a different publisher, but the schedule for that process isn't in my control. I don't have any active plans for original fiction in progress right now. Whether I produce any in 2022 will depend partly on whether one of my publishers comes out with a submission call that intrigues me. I considered adding "get through the manga in my TBR stack" to this list, but that objective is probably unattainable, because it's infinite; new books keep appearing. (Heavens to murgatroyd, I wonder how that happens?)

In terms of the bigger picture, I recently read an article about society's goal in regard to COVID-19. The question under consideration was: What do we expect when we anticipate the end of the pandemic? What do we mean when we talk about an "end," and what would it look like? What we do know is that the virus will probably never disappear from the face of the Earth. Which numbers of case rates, hospitalizations, and deaths would we regard as a sign that the pandemic is over? Most likely, it will subside to an endemic level like ordinary flu, kept in check by annual boosters. In another recent article about how pandemics end, examples of past infectious disease threats and their outcomes were analyzed. Some were eradicated, some died out on their own, some had their risks drastically reduced by vaccination, and some became endemic (always present in the environment but not a serious danger to most people). All we can be sure of is that COVID-19 won't last forever—even if it's beginning to seem like it.

Whether in our personal lives or on a nationwide or global scale, we can't meaningfully achieve goals unless we define them in specific, measurable terms. Unless we're sure where we want to go, how will we know when we get there?

Margaret L. Carter

Carter's Crypt

Quantitative and Qualitative

Cory Doctorow's latest LOCUS column analyzes the difference between quantitative and qualitative measurements and the pitfalls of depending solely on the former:

Qualia

He begins with examples from the COVID-19 pandemic. The University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign became the epicenter of a COVID outbreak as a result of putting too much faith in an epidemiological model produced by "a pair of physicists." (The article doesn't mention why they were chosen to work the calculations instead of specialists in epidemiology.) The predictions didn't take into account the variables of human behavior, the "qualitative" element. The article cites contact tracing as another example of similar problems. Regardless of how accurate the math based on the data may be, do the infected people trust contact tracers enough to supply reliable data? Those who work with quantitative elements such as statistics and mathematical models have to restrict their research to elements that can be quantized. As Doctorow puts it, "To do math on a qualitative measurement, you must first quantize it, assigning a numeric value to it," a difficult and dubiously reliable process. (E.g., "How intense is your pain?" I never quite know how to answer that question on a scale of one to ten.)

Quantitative disciplines, as he summarizes the issue, "make very precise measurements of everything that can be measured precisely, assign deceptively precise measurements to things that can’t be measured precisely, and jettison the rest on the grounds that you can’t do mathematical operations on it." He compares this process of exclusion to the strategy of the proverbial drunk searching for his car key under the lamppost—not because that's where he lost it, but because that's where the light is.

Doctorow applies the principle to an extended discussion of monopolies, price-fixing, collusion, and antitrust laws. As an example of the potential injustice generated by "treating all parties as equal before the law," he mentions the designation of Uber drivers as "independent contractors." When treated as equivalent to giant corporations, those drivers are forbidden to "form a collective to demand higher wages," because that's legally classified as "price-fixing."

Although Doctorow doesn't mention writers, the same absurdly imbalanced restrictions can be made to apply to them. If an authors' organization promulgates a model contract and puts pressure on publishers to adhere to it, that's prohibited as "collusion" in restraint of trade.

While, according to Doctorow, "Discarding the qualitative is a qualitative act. . . . the way you produce your dubious quantitative residue is a choice, a decision, not an equation," that doesn't mean quantitative measures are useless or inherently evil. The quest for objectivity has its legitimate role—"just because we can’t rid ourselves of the subjective, it doesn’t follow that we must abandon the objective." Reliable empirically based outcomes result from balancing the quantitative and the qualitative components of the available evidence.

Margaret L. Carter

Carter's Crypt

Starting Afresh

Kameron Hurley's newest LOCUS column discusses making a fresh start with the turn from winter to spring:

Plotting the Way Forward

Noting that the ancient Romans marked the New Year in March rather than January, Hurley muses about the signs of spring that show up in March. This year, she finds particular hope in the change of seasons because a potential end to the COVID crisis may be in sight. She ponders what is meant by "returning to normal": What will go back to the way it was? What will have changed permanently? As she puts it, “'normal' is a shifting target. After the last year, our world will not be quite the same."

One change she welcomes is the decline of shopping malls. Here I disagree. I'm a big fan of malls, even though with online ordering I haven't frequented our local mall in recent years nearly so much as I used to (especially after its chain bookstore closed). Sure, a green-space town center with a cluster of shops, within easy walking distance of home, would be lovely. But that's not likely to sprout up out of nowhere near us (all the ground within walking distance being occupied by houses or, if one has the stamina to hike one-point-three miles to the main road, existing stores). Nor does it describe the neighborhoods where I spent the years between age eight and moving out of my parents' home to get married. We lived in the suburbs. There was nowhere to walk except other houses and, a longish trek from our home, a major highway at the entrance to the development. A very long bike ride could take us to a shopping strip with one large store and several smaller ones. When the first actual mall opened near us (in the greater Norfolk, Virginia, area), in my teens, I was thrilled about the concept of shopping at a bunch of stores in the same location, with plenty of parking, under a ROOF! That last was a big deal in one of the more rainy regions of the country. And I still think malls are a great idea in places where most people depend on cars to get anywhere, which describes every city we've lived in throughout our married life.

But I digress. Some of the changes Hurley welcomes, I can agree with. As for the ambition to "re-think our crowded buildings in crowded cities that have few to no greenspaces," that sounds desirable, but such a revolution can't occur with the simple wave of a wand. Shifting many jobs to remote work is a change I'd like to see made permanent, if only for the sake of our grown children who've benefited from it. What about universal mask-wearing? I look forward to not having to do that all the time, yet I agree with Hurley on the advantage of getting sick less often. I could embrace a custom of wearing masks out and about when suffering from a mild illness, as many people do in Japan. As a probable side effect of the COVID precautions, I haven't had a cold in over a year. Hurley also looks forward to future advances in medical science as a result of discoveries made in the course of vaccine research. Like wars, pandemics can produce occasional positive technological side effects.

I've missed attending church in person, but I hope after we resume live gatherings our church will continue to record Sunday services for availabilty to people who can't be present for one reason or another. The pandemic has compelled us to try many such innovations that would be helpful to hang onto. The ubiquity of restaurant meal ordering, for example—it's become easier than ever before to get home-delivered meals from a wide variety of our favorite places, on websites instead of over the phone, prepaid with a credit card. With the success of virtual conventions in the past year, maybe some of them will continue to provide an online track for fans who can't make it to the physical location. However, there's at least one minor negative about the increasing shift to electronic media, from my personal viewpoint: More and more periodicals are switching to digital-only. I like magazines I can hold in my hands and, if worth rereading, store on a shelf.

A related trend that predated COVID but may have accelerated recently is the convenience of being able perform many activities such as financial and government transactions over the Web. No need to drive to the bank to transfer funds, the post office to buy stamps, or the motor vehicle office to renew a car registration. This trend is likely to continue and expand. Of course, the downside involves less convenience for people who don't have a computer (my 90-year-old aunt, for one, but many citizens lack computers and their associated functions from poverty, not choice) or adequate internet access. As has often been pointed out recently, computers with internet connections are no longer luxuries but household necessities on a level with water, electric, and phone services.

Hurley concludes by invoking March, which heralds spring in much of the northern hemisphere, as the time "when we celebrate surviving the very worst the world could throw at us, and plot a new way forward." Or, as Brad Paisley says in his optimistic song "Welcome to the Future," highlighting modern marvels formerly enjoyed only in the realm of science fiction, "Wherever we were going, hey, we're here."

Margaret L. Carter

Carter's Crypt

"The Width Of The Buttocks" (NOT!)

It all comes down to profitable voyeurism, or spying, and it is all rooted in the many possible meanings of "beaming".

If you have a mobile phone, and most people do, you beam a lot, whether you know it or not, and around the world, what you beam is of profit and interest to governments, Silicon Valley, advertisers, and more...especially if you have Bluetooth.

Writing for Privacy Zone, a blog of the law firm Rothwell, Figg, Ernst & Manbeck PC, legal blogger Jenny L. Colgate discusses Facebook's request to the Ninth Circuit to reconsider the question, "Are Targeted Ads The Result Of Wiretapping?"
https://www.theprivacylaw.com/2020/05/are-targeted-ads-the-result-of-wiretapping-facebook-asks-the-ninth-circuit-to-reconsider/#page=1

Is it "wiretapping" when Facebook spies on a person who is not logged in to Facebook, who might not even have a Facebook account and therefore has never agreed to Facebook's terms, and who does not visit Facebook or one of Facebook's businesses?

Allegedly, Facebook manages to beam up data about such a person via the ubiquitous Facebook "plugins" that litter the internet. If you see a "Like" symbol on any page on the internet, and then check what tracking cookies have been added to your device, you'll see Facebook ones, like nits, sucking up your power and memory and beaming messages to Zuck.

They're not alone, and Jenny L. Colgate's colleague Jennifer B. Maisel recently reported with especial scrutiny on Bluetooth beacon technology that enables carriers of mobile phones --and also of Covid-19-- to beam warnings to each other, albeit, apparently only after they have passed on another unnoticed like ships in the night.

More sinister is the rise of the tracking apps in Malaysia, Singapore and South Korea, as examined for law firm Tay & Partners by legal bloggers  Lee Lin Li and Chong Kah Yee.
http://www.taypartners.com.my/en/index.php/covid-19-20200528

There's a whole lot of beaming going on, also compulsory bracelet wearing, and one wonders whether someone who did not voluntarily own a mobile phone would be allowed to go anywhere or do anything. Apparently, it might be a condition of employment that a worker sets up their own QR code for themself.

Finally, an update from Brian Murphy on the Instagram issue, that is, whether putting a copyrighted work on instagram means that you unwittingly allow all the internet to exploit your work without permission or payment as long as they "embed" your work with a linkback to Instagram.  Maybe not so fast....
https://advertisinglaw.fkks.com/post/102g8ym/instagram-and-embedding-photos-an-update-and-a-bombshell-from-instagram

Not "finally".  In case you didn't hear it, "inamebooks" is allegedly a phishing site. It allegedly does not have books. It wants names, addresses, credit card numbers.

Another alleged bad actor, Brewster Kahle of the Internet Archive, has received two stern letters from Thom Tillis and a lawsuit from four publishers, so it is shutting down its piratical "Emergency Library".

All the best,
Rowena Cherry 

SPACE SNARK™ http://www.spacesnark.com/  

Force Majeure

Force Majeure is a sexy French name for a powerful excuse for failure to perform.  It is much in the news, and is being invoked by major oil companies and very small publishers to welsh on contractual agreements.

"To welsh" is rather a pejorative term, and might also be politically incorrect, as it implies that residents of Wales are synonymous with financial unreliability. No offense toWales or its people or princes is intended here.

Contract Standards publishes a fair definition of Force Majeure.
https://www.contractstandards.com/public/clauses/force-majeure

The Shearman & Sterling legal blog is highly edifying on the burning question of whether or not Covid-19 is a Force Majeure event. Of especial interest is their three-point test of whether or not the critieria for Force Majeure is satisfied.
https://www.shearman.com/perspectives/2020/03/covid-19--force-majeure-event

Could an author who is locked into an unacceptable contract declare Force Majeure because of Covid-19? This author only reads legal and publishing blogs, but if BP can put off purchasing LNG equipment for an entire year (when the market is bad for oil and gas) on the grounds that the pandemic is beyond its control, the pandemic prevents BP from performing, and BP took all reasonable steps to mitigate the consequences of the pandemic on its operations, maybe authors working from home could claim the same, if they wanted to do so.

It's not easy to write at the same time as unplanned home-schooling, or while having to watch adorable ankle biters every second of the waking day.

The Authors Guild has a guide to help those affected by Covid-19
https://www.authorsguild.org/covid-19-resources-for-authors/

Recently, Michael Seidlinger of Publishers Weekly wrote about 15 books and authors hurt by the coronavirus.
https://www.publishersweekly.com/pw/by-topic/authors/interviews/article/82703-15-books-and-authors-hurt-by-the-coronavirus.html

Book tours are cancelled, book stores are closed, sales are down, allegedly Amazon is giving preference to promoting third party book sales (for which no royalties are paid to authors, of course), and piracy is soaring. Californian freelance authors have even more about which to worry.

Bryan Cave Leighton & Paisner have a very good set of bullet points about Force Majeure and Covid-19, whether one is on the receiving end of a Force Majeure notice, or considering dishing out one.
https://www.bclplaw.com/en-US/thought-leadership/force-majeure-and-covid-19-considerations-for-businesses-in-the-us.html

An author is certainly helpless if under a governor's local executive orders to keep schools closed for the rest of the school year, and to confine everyone to their homes in fortnightly increments.

Foster Swift Collins & Smith PC detail some of the Covid-19 restrictions for those "cabined, cribbed, confined" (Macbeth) in Michigan.
https://www.fosterswift.com/communications-michigan-stay-home-extended-april-30.html

Given the lift to morale that one could get from painting a room --or even an accent wall-- in these S.A.D.times,  it seems particularly cruel that in some places, one may not even buy paint!

All the best,
Rowena Cherry 

SPACE SNARK™ http://www.spacesnark.com/  http://www.rowenacherry.com