Showing posts with label extinction. Show all posts
Showing posts with label extinction. Show all posts

Thursday, June 08, 2023

Existential Threat?

As you may have seen in the news lately, dozens of experts in artificial intelligence have supported a manifesto claiming AI could threaten the extinction of humanity:

AI Could Lead to Extinction

Some authorities, however, maintain that this fear is overblown and "a distraction from issues such as bias in systems that are already a problem" and other "near-term harms."

Considering the "prophecies of doom" in detail, we find that the less radically alarmist doom-sayers aren't talking about Skynet, HAL 9000, or even self-aware Asimovian robots circumventing the Three Laws to dominate their human creators. More immediately realistic warnings call attention to risks posed by such things as the "deep fake" programs Rowena discusses in her recent post. In the near future, we could see powerful AI "drive an exponential increase in the volume and spread of misinformation, thereby fracturing reality and eroding the public trust, and drive further inequality, particularly for those who remain on the wrong side of the digital divide."

On the other hand, a member of an e-mail list I subscribe to has written an essay maintaining that the real existential threat of advanced AI doesn't consist of openly scary threats, but irresistibly appealing cuteness:

Your Lovable AI Buddy

Suppose, in the near future, everyone has a personal AI assistant, more advanced and individually programmed than present day Alexa-type devices? Not only would this handheld, computerized friend keep track of your schedule and appointments, preorder meals from restaurants, play music and stream videos suited to your tastes, maybe even communicate with other people's AI buddies, etc., "It knows all about you, and it just wants to make you happy and help you enjoy your life. . . . It would be like a best friend who’s always there for you, and always there. And endlessly helpful." As he mentions, present-day technology could probably create a device like that now. And soon it would be able to look much more lifelike than current robots. Users would get emotionally attached to it, more so than with presently available lifelike toys. What could possibly be the downside of such an ever-present, "endlessly helpful" friend or pet?

Not so fast. If we're worried about hacking and misinformation now, think of how easily our hypothetical AI best friend could subtly shape our view of reality. At the will of its designers, it could nudge us toward certain political or social viewpoints. It could provide slanted, "carefully filtered" answers to sensitive questions. This development wouldn't require "a self-aware program, just one that seems to be friendly and is capable of conversation, or close enough." Building on its vast database of information collected from the internet and from interacting with its user, "It wouldn’t just be trained to emotionally connect with humans, it would be trained to emotionally manipulate humans."

In a society with a nearly ubiquitous as well as almost omniscient product like that, the disadvantaged folks "on the wrong side of the digital divide" who couldn't afford one might even be better off, at least in the sense of privacy and personal freedom.

Margaret L. Carter

Carter's Crypt

Thursday, December 02, 2021

ChessieCon 2021

For the second year in a row, the Baltimore-area ChessieCon was held online instead of in person. (Not long before the scheduled date, we lost our hotel, which became a quarantine facility.) I was mildly anxious about the procedure for this con because it looked more complicated than last year's set-up, when members could just drop in to join a Zoom meeting anytime. This year, we had to register in advance for any session we wanted to "attend," and registration was locked when a panel began. To my relief, though, everything worked smoothly, easier than I'd expected. The system allowed me to sign up for my whole weekend's choices at once. Having registered, I received individual e-mails with the "room" link for each session, and it didn't matter if I started watching a few minutes into the time slot. It was only the registration itself that was "locked."

I always enjoy the musical events at ChessieCon. This year I watched two performances, Roberta Rogow (filk) and Bob and Sue Esty, formerly of the group Clam Chowder (mostly folk). I was especially glad Roberta Rogow sang one of my favorite of her standard pieces, "Schindler's List," which always brings me to tears.

Topics of panels I watched all or part of: Immortals in fiction; "A Century of Robots"; Native American mythology and lore in fantasy; pandemics in history and literature; creating gods for a fictional universe; portal stories. As one would expect from convention panels, many provocative questions were raised with no definitive answers reached. Fun! Panels also offer chances to learn about books one might not have read or even heard of.

Aside from the music, my favorite session was a lecture on mass extinctions—definition, types, consequences—delivered by Thomas Holtz, a paleontologist from the University of Maryland. He was an informative, lucid, and entertaining speaker, whose presentation included a lavish array of charts and colorful slides. I've bookmarked his name on YouTube to view some of his other videos in the future.

While I regret missing the live con weekend of yore, a virtual convention has advantages. No rushing around like decapitated chickens to get out of the house the day after Thanksgiving. (One year we unwisely left turkey soup simmering very low all weekend, asking one of our sons to drop by and check on it. We came home to a pot of charred bones. Never again.) No need to drive anywhere or spend money on hotel rooms, meals, and dog boarding. There's one odd negative consequence of watching a con on the computer, however. When I'm home, I can't avoid doing a lot of the chores and such I would do on an ordinary weekend, so I end up "attending" fewer panels and performances than I would in person. At the hotel, the weekend is all con, all the time.

Next year in person for sure, Lord willing!

Margaret L. Carter

Carter's Crypt

Thursday, July 09, 2020

Catalogs of Apocalypses

I'm reading a new anthology called APOCALYPTIC, edited by S. C. Butler and Joshua Palmer. Not surprisingly, the stories tend toward downer endings; optimistic viewpoints on worldwide devastation are few. So far, my favorite piece, "Coafield's Catalog of Available Apocalypse Events," by Seanan McGuire, isn't exactly a story, because it has no narrative arc. It comprises a humorous A to Z list of alternatives offered to customers who have "decided to end the human race and possibly the world," promoted by what appears to be a sort of disaster-scenario catering service. Q, by the way, stands for "Quantum," and Z, of course, represents Zombies.

TVTropes has a page listing all major scenarios for the destruction of the human race, Earth, the solar system, or the universe:

Apocalypse How

Disasters are classified according to Scope (all the way from local or city-wide to universal, multiversal, or even omniversal) and Severity (from societal disruption or collapse up to physical or metaphysical annihilation). Examples of each possible permutation are cited, and there's also a list of pages for the most common causes of disruption or destruction.

Back in 1979, Isaac Asimov published A CHOICE OF CATASTROPHES, an exhaustive survey of possible ways our species, our planet, the solar system, or the entire space-time continuum might end or at least become uninhabitable. He categorizes them as catastrophes of the first through the fifth class, from universal down to local. The first class involves the entire universe. Second, the solar system could be (indeed, eventually will be) destroyed or rendered inhospitable to life. Third, life could become impossible on Earth. Fourth, the human species might be wiped out while some other life survives. Fifth, humanity could survive the destruction of our civilization. The fifth class is the type most often portrayed in "apocalyptic" fiction featuring plagues, zombie hordes, meteor bombardments, etc.

I'm not sure how the word "apocalypse," which is simply Greek for "revelation," got its popular meaning as the cataclysmic end of civilization, life, or the world. Most likely the connotation developed that way because what the "apocalyptic" biblical and extra-canonical prophecies usually revealed was the destruction of the present world order and sometimes Earth itself. When Buffy saves the world "a lot" and the Winchester brothers in the SUPERNATURAL series prevent multiple apocalypses, it's life on Earth they're usually saving.

Anyway, an author who wants to destroy civilization, humanity, organic life, the world, or the universe has a plethora of methods to choose from.

Margaret L. Carter

Carter's Crypt

Thursday, August 22, 2019

Pre-Human Civilizations?

Could some other species have built a civilization on Earth long before we evolved? Gavin Schmidt, director of NASA's Goddard Institute for Space Studies, considers that possibility:

Are We Earth's Only Civilization?

If a society of intelligent, nonhuman beings existed before the Quaternary period, 2.6 million years ago, mainstream geology tells us no material evidence of them would remain. "Go back much farther than the Quaternary and everything has been turned over and crushed to dust." Then how would we know about their civilization? The preservation of fossils and artifacts, even if that hypothetical nonhuman society had flourished recently enough to possibly leave such relics, depends on sheer chance. Schmidt speculates about how we could know they existed, as a thought experiment exploring what evidence, if any, from our own society would survive millions of years in the future. He suggests plastics, changes in sedimentary nitrogen patterns (from using so much of it as fertilizer to feed our population), and the appearance in sedimentary layers of "rare-Earth elements used in electronic gizmos." Above all, our intensive burning of fossil fuels should leave evidence in the form of shifts in the balances of carbon and oxygen isotopes. Schmidt wonders, if our own Anthropocene epoch is in the process of depositing traces in the Earth's bedrock, "might the same 'signals' exist right now in rocks just waiting to tell us of civilizations long gone?"

The article concludes, "By asking about civilizations lost in deep time, we’re also asking about the possibility for universal rules guiding the evolution of all biospheres in all their creative potential, including the emergence of civilizations." Could guidelines for such "universal rules" help us predict what we may find on alien worlds?

While Schmidt and the author of the article don't believe such a nonhuman culture actually preceded us on this planet, the possibility is interesting to consider. And since it's hard if not impossible to prove a negative, especially regarding events so unimaginably far in the past, we can't be sure one didn't exist. Unless time travel were invented, we would never have any contact with the builders of such a civilization or even know what they were like. That is, unless we somehow found long-buried structures such as the vast city of the extinct Elder Things in Antarctica in H. P. Lovecraft's "At the Mountains of Madness." These creatures arrived on Earth when the moon was young and became extinct long before advanced terrestrial life evolved. The Elder Things also coexisted with giant penguins, and interestingly, the fossilized bones of penguins about the size of human adults have been found in New Zealand. They came along much too late to be alive at the same period as the Elder Things, though:

Giant Penguin in New Zealand

Suppose we discovered an abandoned city like that, miraculously having avoided being "crushed to dust," inhabited only by monstrous, amorphous shoggoths that survived and continued to reproduce after their creators died off? Hmm, I wonder what we could do with tame shoggoths. . . .

Margaret L. Carter

Carter's Crypt